Fragile equilibrium

In an unprecedented move, a special court in Pakistan has convicted (January 30) former prime minister and supreme leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, to ten years of imprisonment under the Official Secrets Act (OSA). It may be recapitulated that in the capacity as the Prime Minister of the country, Imran Khan had allegedly leaked contents of a cipher message where the US administration had conceived negative perceptions about Pakistan. Imran Khan detractors had thought, and a large section of Pakistani intelligentsia still thinks, that it was a major act of indiscretion and breach of diplomatic norms. Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi were also convicted for concealing and illegally selling State gifts from the Toshakhana. Simultaneously, vice chairman of PTI and erstwhile foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has also been convicted for ten years.

Going by the recent convictions, the immediate thought that comes to our mind is that the army is still calling the shots and is apparently avenging Imran Khan’s act of May 9, 2022, where the army bastions were breached during a protest rally held by PTI activists and supporters. Other than the army, the judiciary also seems to be supporting the present establishment in siding with anti-Imran Khan lobbies to see that Imran Khan remains out of the political fray and is not allowed to participate in the forthcoming elections, due very shortly. Electorally, Imran Khan may be down at this point in time but he is still a force to reckon with as a number of pre-poll surveys indicate that PTI is the most popular party today, and if free and fair elections take place, then Imran Khan and PTI’s victory is almost certain.

As in Pakistan’s annals of history, ever since its inception in 1947, the country always had its military deciding things by never allowing any breathing space to a civilian government. This hard and sad reality is well-known, not requiring any elaboration. By this fast-changing development, we also see an established equation between former Prime Minister and PML (N) leader Nawaz Sharif plus his cohorts and the army to ensure and lodge Nawaz Sharif as the new Prime Minister. Although a wily politician himself who held responsibilities as the country’s Prime Minister on more than two occasions, Nawaz refuses to reconcile to the fact that it’s the army which threw him out of power and brought Imran Khan in 2018 as the Prime Minister, and just because Imran Khan touched the wrong chord of the military, he lost his job prematurely before completing his term. Who knows what is in store for Prime Minister aspirant Nawaz Sharif who is relying wholeheartedly with the armed forces to secure the Prime Ministerial position?

Meanwhile, a section of skeptics in Pakistan believes it is possible that the US is providing a script to the Pakistan security establishment, specifically to the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to nail Imran Khan's political future and resurrect Nawaz Sharif as the head of the new political dispensation for "better US-Pakistan political and military ties." The PTI has described the ongoing trial as a sham and decided to file an appeal at the highest court in Islamabad since the current judgment delivered from a Special Court in the prison in Rawalpindi does not hold much ground. Elaborating further, critics of the army have also described the recent judgment as a predetermined verdict. Noted columnist and writer Zahid Hussain has come down heavily on the judgment, stating that it has set a shameful tradition of removing political leaders from the electoral contest before impending elections. This marks the first time in Pakistan's history that a Prime Minister has been convicted, proving that the military remains all-powerful, and the general population remains at the mercy of the military. Under the prevailing circumstances, the political climate in Pakistan remains turbulent. Having said this, Imran Khan's support base is likely to increase in Pakistan, posing a potential challenge to the Pakistan military in the times to come. As such, the future scene could be fraught with volatile proportions. Zahid Hussain also assesses that while there are no imminent signs of a military takeover in the near future, and the elections are certain, the military, under no conditions, will allow the civil administration to assume power.

Commenting on the judgement, critics say the legal proceedings were highly unusual, held not in a courtroom but in the makeshift prison in Rawalpindi where Khan was being detained. They were conducted behind the closed doors, which Khan’s lawyers protested as being unconstitutional. Khan described the trial as “a joke” as both the prosecution and defense teams were government-appointed lawyers and Khan’s lawyers were not allowed to cross-examine the witnesses. The court also refused Khan’s request that senior army figures testify as witnesses. Khan’s former adviser Syed Zulfiqar Bukhari felt this was only done in such a rush to convict Imran Khan prior to the upcoming elections.

According to an analysis carried out by media house Al Jazeera, as Pakistan votes in its 12th general election, one question above all lingers in the air: Can the country of 241 million people rectify the civilian-military imbalance, which has, to many critics, turned the latest elections into a farce?

Although the upcoming elections may look certain, it remains to be seen how the political scene emerges after Imran Khan’s conviction!

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal